Rutgers men’s basketball coach Steve Pikiell remembers the first time he saw Ace Bailey. As a freshman at McEachern High School in Georgia, Bailey had a long, athletic frame and showed energy — but he “was learning how to be a basketball player.”
One year later, Pikiell and assistant coach Brandin Knight returned to see Bailey. They were both blown away by his development (and the extra 3 inches in height).
“I remember seeing him at the end of his sophomore year, and I just said to Brandin, ‘He could be off-the-charts good.’ And that’s what he’s become: off-the-charts good.”
Bailey, a five-star recruit, signed with Rutgers and had what many consider a very good freshman season. He was productive individually, earning All-Big Ten honors and averaging 17.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. But the Scarlet Knights finished 15-17, 11th in the conference and, despite having two NBA likely lottery picks in Bailey and Dylan Harper, failed to make the NCAA tournament.
Now, three months later and days away from the 2025 draft, the 18-year-old, 6-foot-8 small forward is once again trying to prove he belongs with the elite basketball players in the world.
Some view him as a can’t-miss NBA player, a scorer with size and skills capable of being a perennial All-Star. After former Duke star Cooper Flagg and Harper — the consensus top two selections — many say Bailey should be that next pick at No. 3.
Others, however, see him as a raw prospect with maturity issues not worth the risk at the top of the draft. He’s also reportedly fallen down teams’ rankings after questionable offseason decisions. The biggest? Not working out for any NBA team in the pre-draft process, a move rarely seen before. This includes canceling scheduled time with the Philadelphia 76ers, who hold the third selection.
All of this adds up to the most polarizing prospect in the 2025 class: You either love Bailey or want nothing to do with him.
“I think teams are overthinking it,” a Western Conference scout told NBC News. “I’ve heard his interviews have been ‘bad,’ but he’s a confident kid. Hard worker, believes in himself. Worst-case scenario he’s a Michael Porter Jr. type, and best case is a Paul George.”
Another college evaluator isn’t so sure. (The scouts spoke on the condition of anonymity because they’re not authorized to speak publicly.)
“He’s obviously a top talent in the draft if everything maxed out. He scores a lot but doesn’t impact the game a ton outside of scoring,” they said. “Now you add in the off-the-court stuff where there are some teams scared about how he interviews and the people around him.”
Few know what Bailey brings — and could bring — better than his college coach. A former UConn point guard who played and coached under the legendary Jim Calhoun, Pikiell has been around many NBA stars over his decades on the court and on the sidelines.
He said the decision is a no-brainer for NBA franchises.
“Ace Bailey’s upside is higher than anybody’s in the entire draft,” Pikiell said. He added that included Rutgers’ stud guard Harper, whom many prognosticators view as the second-best prospect in the draft behind Flagg.
“What he does at 18 years old is ridiculous,” Pikiell said about Bailey, who turns 19 in August. “He’s got a special work ethic, he’s coachable, he’s got all the intangibles, his body matures. He’s got as quick a release as any player I’ve been around, including Ray Allen. He can get it off from deep and can create his own. He will get in the lane and get a shot off against all kinds of defenders.”
However, there’s a difference in getting a shot off and making a shot, a major criticism of Bailey. He’ll occasionally make a highlight-reel play but follow it up with an ill-timed or contested one.
The Athletic’s John Hollinger, a former vice president of basketball operations for the Memphis Grizzlies, wrote that Bailey had “arguably the worst shot selection in college basketball.” He had Bailey as his 12th-best prospect.
ESPN college basketball and draft analyst Fran Fraschilla called that assessment of Bailey “garbage.”
“His strength is his ability to take tough and make tough shots. Getting your own shot off in the NBA is a skill in and of itself,” Fraschilla told NBC News. “When you have a 24-second clock and you’re playing against a playoff-level team, you’re not getting an easy shot on the first pass or two in the offense. And oftentimes, with the shot clock running down, you need somebody that can rise up and take a shot and make a shot. And he certainly has shown that capability.”
Pikiell was even more blunt.
“I did not want him to make passes. I wanted those other guys to rebound, and I wanted him to take shots. So his job for me was to score points,” he said. “When I watch these really good NBA guys, whether I’m watching the Celtics play or whether I’m watching OKC (Oklahoma City), those really good players make really difficult shots, and that’s what makes them superstars. I think he’s got a knack for making shots that other people would consider tough, and he practices them, too.”
That was the other criticism that made the Rutgers coach laugh — the idea Bailey wasn’t yet mature on or off the court. This was a player, he said, that teammates loved to play with, was coachable in both practice and games and constantly watched film.
“And he takes responsibility. When he doesn’t play well, he takes responsibility for it. He tries to make changes when needed,” he said. “For a kid who won’t be 19 until the end of August, and he’ll be drafted as an 18-year-old, he is very mature in accepting responsibility for his basketball. That’s truly a strength.”
If this is all true, it seems valid to wonder why Rutgers did not make the NCAA tournament, especially with two star players like Harper and Bailey. Pikiell says some of it comes down to the strength of the Big Ten, arguably the best conference in the country. Harper and Bailey also did not play together much, he said, as both were injured at different times over the season and sill had to shoulder a major part of the offense.
It led to both taking on a much bigger role than anticipated, especially considering they were by far the biggest threats for opposing teams. If only one was on the court, defenses would often double and sometimes triple team to take them out of the game.
A counter example would be Flagg, who played at Duke with two other expected lottery picks and a host of former All-American recruits.
“There’s players in our country here that can’t be triple teamed because the other five players are getting drafted, too,” Pikiell said. “That wasn’t what these guys faced every day, and every game they faced different looks by different teams and older players.”
Adds Fraschilla: “People criticize Rutgers for not going to the NCAA Tournament, but essentially, he and Dylan Harper were the only two high-major players on the team. Everybody else was a mid-major player.”
In the end, it’s up to NBA scouting departments and front offices to determine whether Bailey is worth the risk. Executives could easily chalk up Pikiell’s comments simply as a coach defending his player … or they could use it to push past the recent wave of negativity toward the young prospect.
They also must decide whether Bailey skipping workouts before the draft is concerning or just a tactic by his agent to get him to a team they view as more favorable for his game.
How teams answer these questions could be the difference in whether they become a winner or remain at the bottom of the NBA hierarchy.
Is Bailey worth that risk? If you ask his former coach, the upside is worth betting on.
“He’s 18 years old,” Pikiell said. “I don’t even know if he shaves yet.”
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